Concise, intuitive explanation of the three-door problem

Roderick 2022-04-20 09:01:26

Although I haven't seen the movie, I am very interested in the three questions, and I have browsed many comments and answers. Now I will describe my own concise and intuitive explanation as follows. It seems that it does not require much brains. It took a lot of brains.

If only one gate can be chosen at the beginning, the probability is 1/3. There is no doubt
that if you are asked to choose two doors at the beginning, the probability is 2/3. There should also be no controversy.
The rules of the game are to let you choose 2 doors by changing.
As for which of these two doors does not have a car, the host has already ruled out one for you, so you don't have to worry about it anymore.
As for whether the host can rule out the right or not, it is the core of everyone's controversy. If the host knows in advance that one row is accurate, your chance of winning the lottery will be locked in 2/3, but if the host does not know, it is also a random row, then you The probability of winning the lottery is reduced from 2/3 to (2/3*1/2=1/3), which is the same as the probability of choosing a car before, that is, you can change it or not.

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Extended Reading
  • Lizeth 2022-04-24 07:01:04

    It's an OK casino film, but my IQ is not enough to understand the algorithm of 21 points, and the director's interpretation is not good enough, and even a little tricky.

  • Rosendo 2022-03-22 09:01:27

    Those who want to learn technology are bound to be disappointed, haha, and the director didn't reveal the meaning at all. I like the plot. In the second half, when everything is gone, I really have to sigh that Nima is a bloody life, Atai can resonate

21 quotes

  • [Jill wakes up Ben on the plane after landing back in Boston]

    Ben Campbell: I seem to keep waking up to you.

    Jill Taylor: Don't get used to it.

  • [Micky gets on Fisher's back after Fisher gets jealous of Ben's winnings]

    Fisher: Beginner's luck.

    Micky Rosa: Hey, Fisher. Win like a man, lose like a man.

    Fisher: Micky, I didn't play into a cold deck three times.

    Micky Rosa: You know what's worse than a loser? Someone who won't admit he played it wrong.