Success and fame will never be like going out to pick up money-write to yourself

Winona 2022-03-24 09:01:14

1. Film Overview

Bell, Pete, Gosling, John Magaro and Fenwick Locke, as well as the super-skilled Jennifer Lawrence, have joined forces to dedicate a financial science blockbuster for us (mainly for the American people).

The film recalls that before the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the United States, Bray predicted that the short-selling would be impossible, and proceeded to implement it against the wind. Later, another manager, Vannett, and the little-known Geller x Shipley combination smelled the wind. It was also decided to be full, Fannetra went to Baum, a popular clientele, and the two-person team was backed by a senior Hawker. In the end, the story of these big bears bucking the trend in the shocking financial collapse.

2. The Twilight of the Gods

In the film (or at that time) American society and Wall Street have a general and huge optimism about mortgages. No one from the practitioners to the salesman to the credit rating agency has the will to learn more about the reality or to be objective. The risks are recognized. Even the dancers put a lot of money into the mortgage. The entire financial system is full of blindness and fraud caused by greed, just like a player at the poker table, who optimistically evaluates a "good" card in his hand, while further bluffing and pushing his chips into the pool. In the end, when the big shorts won, Morgan, Lehman Brothers, and Bear Stearns should collapse. Millions of people are homeless. It really complied with that crooked poem. Look at him raising a tall building, look at him banqueting guests, look at his building collapsed. The warning from the Twilight of the Gods is not only not to put eggs in a cage, but also to always be vigilant, to be vigilant to the situation, to be vigilant to one's own operation and decision-making, to be vigilant to disagreements-not to stifle, but to be vigilant. think.

What goes up, must go down. The most terrifying thought is "These will never happen" or "This will never happen to me", the more absurd version is-"The government/corporate/banker will not allow these Happened"-trying to put the rope of life and death in the hands of others and expecting others to be as cautious as a rope loop around his own neck is one of the most naive ideas in the world.

The same is true of the current pattern of the mobile phone industry. Nokia used to be a big brother in the industry, and this position was grabbed from Motorola, which used to be the only one in the communications industry. Later, after the rise of Android and candy bars, Nokia did not change as much. It first sold its headquarters and then sold too much A product intended to turn over, but never turned over. The same goes for BlackBerry. Samsung, which was once under Apple, has experienced rapid growth, especially the first high-volume curved screen phone, which originally had a strong momentum. As a result, it exploded and was hit hard. During the same period, Chinese mobile phones were desperately spreading the market. It is too difficult for a small tree to stand tall, but for a big tree to fall, there are millions of reasons. So is the United States, the "declining empire."

3. Inspiration and sweat

The "Two Smoking Guns" style film has a deep impact on everyone. We seem to be used to seeing it, and we are slowly looking forward to letting go and getting rich overnight. This kind of story is indeed very exciting and inspiring. Just like "The Arms Dealer", the two young men empty gloved wolves, sold guns to the US Department of Defense and went abroad casually, and then made tens of thousands of billions. It's really cool.

But unfortunately, success often requires a lot more than luck. And this "many" is what we can control by ourselves.

Indeed, "the occurrence of the crisis" is the fundamental reason for the profits of several big shorts. But if Bray did not predict the occurrence of the crisis, nothing will change, and it is even possible that several heroes will sink with the financial market. This prediction is not about walking down the road and looking down and finding a banknote. The film says, "The way they foresee a crisis is something that other waste wood will never use, that is-observation." Based on excellent working skills, diligence Working hard, accompanied by thinking, is where Bray's unique insight (really "unique") discovers the problem.

This reminds me of an article that was frequently reprinted in Moments recently, probably called "Young I don't understand Gao Xiaosong, I am confused when I understand Gao Xiaosong" or what. Gao Xiaosong can also be said to be successful. What I am most impressed by him is not the "poetry and distant place" that everyone envy, nor the technical life of reincarnation, but Gao Xiaosong has accumulated a lot of things before he went out and went for a break. After all, I grew up in the Tsinghua University. I knew a lot and got good grades. I followed Xiaosong’s mother and learned how to play, play, and sing. The family let him go out, and the agreement was good. That's why he was admitted to the Beijing Film Academy, that's why "You at the same table", and that's why Gao Xiaosong is now. ——Beijing, let you be admitted? In fact, he recommended Zhejiang University to Zhejiang University in high school, but was forced to pass the Tsinghua University entrance examination, so he didn't want to go.

So does Dr. Berry. I used to work hard to learn professional knowledge, but then worked endlessly. Only by analyzing the data that no one pays attention to, will the problem be discovered and the trend can be correctly predicted. Vannett and the duo found that someone was short-selling, and did not laugh at this "fool" like others. On the contrary, they quickly realized that there was a reason for the incident. Einstein said that genius is 99% sweat and 1% inspiration, but that 1% is the most important. ——But only the 99% is controllable, and the 1% comes from 99% preparation.

At the same time, success is a continuous process of competition. No action will be done once and for all. It will appease/suppress investors’ anxiety and opposition, deal with cunning big companies, and continue to invest (monthly surcharge) before receiving returns, and resist all Party pressure, find doubts (the value of loan securities will go up when the risk increases), search for facts (investigation, participation), seek help (see professionals for advice or assistance), find the right time to sell (missing may lead to nothing, the previous investment and All the meat is cut off), which lasted for two years, I believe everything they experienced is far more difficult than what is shown in the movie. This is the true version of a success story, rather than making a lot of money amidst the exciting music.

The road to success is like walking on thin ice. As mentioned earlier, it takes a lot of hardships to grow into a giant tree, but there are thousands of ways to destroy it. Understanding your industry and strengthening your professional knowledge is what you should do.

4. Maslow demand system

Maslow's hierarchy of needs theory has five levels of human needs from bottom to top: physiology, safety, social interaction, respect, and self-realization.

I guess success and fame, or more popularly, to make a fortune is a kind of "respect demand", which is a way to determine one's status through the accumulation of fame and wealth, and to gain the respect of others.

But Berry, Hocht, and Baum are keenly aware of the immorality in the industry, the loss of conscience of practitioners, and more importantly-the drawbacks of the system mechanism and the huge contradiction between business and people’s lives, and they are extremely angry. . "People are not numbers. We are betting that the U.S. economy will collapse. If we make the right bet, people will lose their houses, jobs, pensions, and everything. For every 1% increase in the unemployment rate, the number of deaths will increase by 40,000." I think this It is a need beyond respect, but a determination and need for one's morality and responsibility as a "human being." This is the highest need.

This is not a show, maybe one day we will have this state, but it requires hard work.

At the same time, I would like to say that this is a perfect explanation of "one will succeed in everything." Of course, this cannot be blamed on the shorts. They are just betting on their own judgments, and the problem arises from the enthusiasm and irresponsibility of the whole industry. Give false ratings to retain customers, and do not review customers for the sake of orders. The location does not match the interests of the representative, and the behavior of repacking "stale fish" for sale is widespread. It seems that the deeper Hocht and Baum are in the industry, the more they lose hope in mechanism and humanity. Even after the unprecedented financial tsunami, few people were held accountable, and the old trick changed its name and continued to operate.

Therefore, our society and structure, relative to our individual development, may still appear backward and naive.

5.Montage

It is really tricky to tell the story of three groups of people before and after the financial crisis in 10 minutes, and at the same time explain clearly a dozen proper terms and operating rules. So the whole film used a lot of cutting, and frequent dialogues with the audience, and introduced expensive soundtracks every once in a while, trying to keep the audience focused. Fairly successful.

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Extended Reading

The Big Short quotes

  • Lawrence Fields: Michael, give me my money back. Michael, do you hear me? I want my money back. Give me my fucking money back, you motherfucker.

  • Mark Baum: [on the phone] Ok, I want you to walk back in there and very calmly, very politely tell the risk-assessors to fuck-off!

    Vinnie Daniel: [Walks into the room] Gentlemen, I just spoke with Mark Baum and he says to 'fuck off'.